Who Knows, One Day Today Just Might be the 'Good 'ol Days'
Let's start this month with some quotes:
"The government is strangling us with regulations."
"The cost of fuel is destroying profitability."
"The good days are gone; it will be increasingly difficult to make money in this industry."
Do these sound familiar? You've probably heard them recently, or even said them yourself. At the very least, you can relate to what these quotes are saying about the state of the industry today. There's only one thing – those quotes are from 40 years ago. If you were in trucking in the '70s, you'll remember the sudden spike in fuel prices, long lines to get fuel and even outright shortages. Governments, both state and federal, seemed poised to make their presence felt with ever increasing regulation of the industry. It seemed the states were in competition to see which one could enact the most regulations relating to fuel tax collection and registration of commercial vehicles.
Yet somehow, we survived.
On the heels of the '70s came deregulation, which turned out to be a game changing event. Suddenly the old comfortable industry was turned inside out. Many carriers struggled to adapt with many going out of business.
At the same time, some smaller carriers seized the opportunity and became major nationwide players.
To be certain, this isn't the 1980's and we face a new (and different) set of problems.
But, one of the same business paradigms still applies – either adapt or suffer the consequences. Some have described CSA as just such a "game changer".
Perhaps, but it probably depends on the carrier. Some are already running ads touting their low scores and are using it as a recruiting tool, while others are waiting nervously for their first FMCSA warning letter. In fact, an estimated 23,000 carriers will soon be receiving just such a letter informing them their score in one or more BASIC areas is at or above the alert threshold.
To quote FMCSA: "Motor carriers that receive warning letters should review their safety data in order to develop and execute strategies that will make their operations compliant with safety regulations. Continued poor performance may lead to more intensive interventions." This is the government's not so subtle way of saying, "adapt or suffer the consequences".
The next "game changer" will be the rollout of electronic on board recorders. Just as CSA will change how the industry analyzes inspection defect data, EOBRs will bring hours of service compliance data to the forefront. This will drive the need to incorporate real-time data into dispatching systems in order to head off compliance problems before they happen. If the industry doesn't figure out how to make that happen, FMCSA will certainly be looking over our shoulder, and we almost assuredly won't like how they solve the problem.
In a sense, FMCSA is forcing us to change (modernize) the tools we use to analyze our data and make daily business decisions. Just like the '70s and '80s, we can either adapt or face the consequences.
What will the industry see in the mirror be 20, 30 or 40 years from now? Most likely it will be facing yet another series of challenges and many will look back fondly at the early part of the 21st century and say, "Now that was a good time to be in trucking". It's all a matter of perspective.
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