Recently the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) released updated results for its 2005 Predicting Trucking Crash Involvement Study. The original study established the relationship between traffic violations and crash involvement. In fact, in 2005, a driver with a Reckless Driving conviction was 325% more likely to later become involved in a crash. In the 2011 updated study that conviction didn't make the top 10. In fact there were other significant changes in predictive behaviors.

Studies measure the past. Data is analyzed and relationships are presented. In this case the purpose of the study was to define driver performance that would predict the potential for that driver's involvement in a future crash. To arrive at their conclusions the researchers relied on two data sources: the Motor Carrier Management Information System (MCMIS) and the Commercial Driver's License Information System (CDLIS). For the updated study ATRI studied the records of 587,000 drivers who had undergone a roadside inspection in 2008 and 2009. Of those drivers 30,090 subsequently had a DOT reportable crash:

• 726 resulted in one or more fatalities
• 11,146 resulted in one or more injuries
• 28,150 resulted in one or more vehicles towed from the scene

The next step was to examine the inspection and traffic conviction records for the subset of drivers who had a crash and calculate probable violation predictors. The top ten violation list and increase in crash likelihood is:

1. Failure to use/Improper signal - 96% increase in crash likelihood
2. Past crash - 88% increase
3. Improper passing - 88% increase
4. Improper turn - 84% increase
5. Improper or erratic lane change - 80% increase
6. Improper lane/location - 68% increase
7. Failure to obey traffic sign - 68% increase
8. Speeding more than 15 mph over limit - 67% increase
9. Any conviction - 65% increase
10. Reckless/Careless/Inattentive - 64% increase

There were significant differences between this list and the one presented in the original study. For example, Reckless Driving went from number 1 to number 10. Some of the violations from original study didn't make the Top 10 in the updated study results. So, with that in mind, can this study be useful to the industry? Can knowing that in 2009 a driver with a Failure to Use Signal conviction was 96% more likely to become involved in a crash? What we all want to know is "What's likely to happen with my drivers in the coming months and next year?"

This is a fluid situation. Motor carriers are constantly updating their hiring and safety policies. The states are changing their enforcement strategies and the Federal DOT is enacting further regulations aimed at trucking industry safety. If ATRI updates this study in another five years it's most likely that the top ten list will undergo another significant change.

What the study does establish is that there is a relationship between driver performance and the likelihood of future crash involvement. There is no universal constant as far as which violations or convictions are the most likely predictors. Basically, this study validates the old
saying: "What you see is what you get." If you see a driver with inspection violations and traffic convictions then that driver's probability of future crash involvement is elevated.

Now more than ever motor carriers have access to performance data on their drivers. The key is early intervention. Take action, even after the first violation or conviction. The action doesn't have to be punitive, but it should be designed to demonstrate to the driver that you have higher expectations. The action should be formulated to give the driver the means to prevent a future occurrence. Above all, safety shouldn't just be a word that appears on posters and is used at company meetings.

Safety first is a good slogan but it's not the same as fostering a "safety culture" where decisions are driven by the expected outcome. Those outcomes include customer satisfaction, regulatory compliance and safe operation. It isn't practical to rank one outcome over another, they're all important and they all contribute equally to a successful motor carrier.

A failure to take the message of ATRI's study to heart could potentially mean that the DOT will use your high CSA BASIC scores to schedule an intervention. That should be enough to get even the most reluctant folks on board the safety culture express.