The truck world is all abuzz about EPA’s 2010 standards for diesel emissions. Press announcements and media stories are in the news it seems daily. Volvo and Mack announced that they received the first 2010 EPA certification. International continues their legal wrangling with EPA over allowing the use of selective catalytic reduction (SCR) to comply with 2010 standards. I attended the OPIS Fleet Fueling Conference earlier this fall and the conference subtitle could have been “All About DEF”. The ATA Management Conference in Las Vegas also featured DEF. DEF, in case you don’t live and breathe the truck world, is diesel exhaust fluid. DEF is a chemical used in an SCR control device to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx). In the eyes of a truck operator, DEF is another fuel system that must be maintained and replenished.

EPA’s 2010 emission standards are the next incremental change to the diesel truck. What do I mean by an incremental change? Just like the add-on diesel particulate filter, single wide tires, and aerodynamics, the industry is making gradual changes with diminishing returns. This is the nature of technology. Easy (and inexpensive) changes with big impacts are made first. Each additional round of change has a smaller overall impact at a higher cost. Looking forward – after 2010 emission control systems are common, aerodynamics are in place, improved tires are on the road – what happens next?

Trucking will be faced with two key issues going forward: reduction of greenhouse gases and spiraling fuel prices. Unfortunately, all of the technologies being implemented provide only modest improvements that trim around the edges. What’s needed is technology that leapfrogs beyond where we are today and propels transportation into a low carbon world with affordable fuel.

Of course you know that the answer is natural gas fuel. Natural gas is the single alternative fuel we have today that is proven, plentiful, secure, and cheap. Consider this. Natural gas fuel reduces greenhouse gas emissions by up to 30%. Biogas (produced from landfills, feedlots, and other biological sources) reduces greenhouse gases by over 80%. What other technology is available today that produces such profound reductions? To borrow terminology from the venture capital world, natural gas is a “disruptive technology”. Natural gas is not a small incremental tweak, but a step change. Disruptive changes are difficult for some because, well, they are big changes. We are reaching a fork in the road. Today’s easy path, which is continuing to tweak what we have, leads to a dead end around the next corner. The other path leads to America’s next transportation fuel – cheaper, cleaner, American natural gas.